Sadly: Why Donald Trump Will Win Again in November.
The Left has long felt that the 2016 fluke election cannot repeat itself. They say that there is no way Trump can win again in 2020. They say just look at Virginia — this battle-ground state now has both houses and a Democratic governor. They say that energy will translate to the national level.
They, are wrong. One-off case studies like Virginia don’t win or lose you the presidency. National elections are examples of our most primal instincts and are often the result of broad, sweeping trends.
Tl;dr why Trump will win again:
- America will move to the Right because we can’t embrace our own socialized democracy
- We’re running another John Kerry right now. No one cares about Joe Biden.
- Anger drives action, especially voting, more than love or fear. And there are more angry voters on the Right.
- Trump understands how to keep his finger on the pulse and is not letting the crisis ‘go to waste’. Biden, not so much.
- The uneducated voter helped Trump win and this voter is disproportionately hurt by the virus’ economic shut down. On the margin, this voter will not blame Trump.
Tying these together, you get the following fly wheel until election day:
Businesses and states will open and operate in fits and starts at least until November. Protests and anger will drive and react to the economic conditions. Trump will fuel that wave and ride it back into the Oval Office.
Let’s dive in.
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America will move to the Right because we can’t embrace our own socialized democracy
American should admit to itself that in many ways we already are a socialized democracy. This tweet from Chamath Palihapitiya summarizes that sentiment:
Even though we already have strong socialists elements, we refuse to admit it to ourselves as it’s seen as taboo, anti-American or just untrue. There’s no way we can convince the average low-paid worker to ‘buy-in’ to a more socialized system of anything. Be it healthcare, be it education, be it whatever. And no matter how the Democrats spin it, many of their core campaign arguments play into this socialist bent, especially around healthcare and taxes.
Hence, the virus will end up pushing low-paid workers farther to the Right.
I lifted this idea from umair haque’s piece (“We’re Watching an Economy Die”). In this pulled quote from that article, Umair is speaking of a hypothetical lower-income worker:
If you ask him to pay higher taxes — so that he himself can have better retirement and healthcare — he’ll laugh at you incredulously, and then look at you scornfully. Higher taxes? With what? The pittance he earns from the algorithm that already exploits him to the bone as a glorified servant to the neo-rich? Give him a break, dummy. He can’t put bread on the table as it is…[two paragraphs in between]..Say hello to Presidents Eric, Donald Jr, and Ivanka. Meet your new authoritarian dynasties [emphasis added by me].
#2: We’re running another John Kerry right now. No one cares about Joe Biden.
Axios shows this nicely in one chart:
Social media reach is a measure of sentiment, and sentiment is what drives votes on election day. Those 3x — 15x leads aren’t just because Trump uses the bully pulpit and Twitter. It’s because Biden isn’t compelling at all. He’s a safe, middle-of-the-road candidate with nothing outstanding or controversial.
If you’re going to run an old, white, man in 2020, at least make him polarizing, like Trump. At least make him interesting with original ideas, like Bloomberg or Bernie. We are sucking it up voting for Biden because it’s the only alternative given to us by our screwed-up primary voting system. The marginal voter is not going to suck it up. They are going to be swayed by emotions and how they feel. They feel nothing for Biden.
#3: Anger drives action, especially voting, more than love or fear. And there are more angry voters on the Right.
I’m not going to Google some study or find some CNN poll that proves my point and paste it here. Either you agree that raw emotions like anger drive greater action and increased voter turnout, or you don’t.
The argument I’m really making, which is inherently tied to Reasons #1 and #2, above…is that the raw anger emotion on the Right will drive more voters than the raw love emotion (of Biden the candidate) or the raw fear emotion (of Trump winning again), on the Left.
The real question to ask is: how do you know that anger will swing to the Right? Because there’s residual anger from movements past (e.g. Tea Party) and Trump will stoke those fires.
Just look at Michigan:
These folks are so angry and they are from the Right. They are directing that anger at their Democratic Governor. Trump is pushing more such movements against other Democratic Governors (see Axios article).
Why does Trump and why should we care so much about Michigan? Because it’s what won him the election last time.
Look at this WaPo chart:
We are going to see the same thing in PA and the same thing in WI, and the same thing in any other battle ground state.
But how can Trump keep the energy and anger going until election day? By Reason #4.
#4: Trump understands how to keep his finger on the pulse and is not letting the crisis go to waste. Biden, not so much.
We live in the Kim Kardashian age. We live in the demagogue age. Flash, glitz, and drama. Not substance, policies and integrity. Obama’s first election and that feeling of unity from ’08 is gone forever.
The battle tactics of modern political warfare are inflammation of ego, stoking of anger, appealing to vanity and just making people feel heard. Let me show you, not tell you, how Trump does this:
If that’s not reading your electorate and keeping them happy, I don’t know what is. He understands that substance and having-a-plan-for-everything isn’t what gets people angry. You have to stoke the fire.
Watch as Trump’s tweets will only continue to inflame the arguments between citizens and their state governors, especially in swing states.
Meanwhile…when Biden isn’t pushing out boring videos from his basement, he’s tripping over himself on prime time, national television:
#5: The uneducated voter helped Trump win and this voter is disproportionately hurt by the virus’ economic shut down. On the margin, this voter will not blame Trump.
In 2016, less-educated voters swung for Trump:
This is just as applicable now. Of the 22M+ people who have filed for unemployment thus far, it’s probably safe to say that is more of an un/under-educated populace, than not. It’s not the white-collar, Bankers/Consultants/Analysts losing their jobs. It’s the restaurant managers, the line workers and Mom & Pop employees.
This worker looks at the U.S. political landscape and asks themselves “Who is trying to open the country? Who is fighting for my job to come back?” And the answer is Trump. Whether he’s right or wrong, whether he has a plan or not, none of that matters.
What matters is how Trump makes these newly unemployed workers feel. He makes them feel heard and he gives them a reason to be angry.
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Why I could be wrong:
- There’s more pent-up anger on the Democrat’s side. Probability: Medium/Low. Democrats aren’t an angry party, to their own detriment.
- The virus death rates becomes so high that the marginal voter is affected, and in turn that emotion translates to voting for Biden. Probability: Low. Let’s say ~140M vote in the next election. We’ve had 37k deaths so far, maybe we hit 60k by the election.
- We will probably have to vote remotely or use some form of technology to vote, which will help Democrats as we are more urban or technology-literate. Probability: Low. The urban spots were going blue anyway. The marginal voter in swing states is who we care about and there’s no way to say who is helped by a more tech-forward approach.
- Biden picks Warren as his nominee and that galvanizes the far Left, even the Bernie Bros come out to play. Dems win. Probability: super low. I would argue the Warren bump is already priced in to the polls.
- A scandal comes out of such proportion, or Trump messes up so bad, that the marginal voters swings away from him. Probability: zero. I’m tired of of this argument. Guy is Teflon.
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Again, it pains me to write this because I won’t be voting for Donald Trump. But I think the writing is on the wall.
As always, I’d appreciate your thoughts and feedback. Drop a comment here, or find me on twitter @RSiddhanti.
